Tuesday, March 28, 2017

montgomery county bucks trends to become one of the dc area's fastest growing counties

After years of booming growth, cities around the United States appear to be slowing down. But that's not quite the case in the Washington region. Here, new residents are simultaneously moving back to the city and also further out into suburban areas.
Downtown Silver Spring at Night
Still very much a thing. All photos and images by the author.
Last week, the Census Bureau released population estimates for counties and metropolitan areas in the US for 2016. That includes counts for the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria Metropolitan Area, which includes the District of Columbia and 27 surrounding counties and cities in Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia.

Between 2010 and 2016, the DC metropolitan area gained over 495,000 residents, bringing it up to a population of 6.1 million people last year. The region is growing slower than it has in the past. It added just 53,508 people last year, compared to 89,000 people in 2011.

But it's still enough to make the DC metropolitan area the 10th-fastest growing region in the nation, and that's what makes it an anomaly. As Yonah Freemark of the Transport Politic noted on Twitter, the nation's fastest growing areas are southern and sprawly, like Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, and Atlanta. Meanwhile, older northeastern and Midwestern cities are once again losing population. Baltimore was the third fastest-shrinking county in the nation, behind the counties that contain Chicago and Detroit.

This shift is enough for researcher Jed Kolko (and others) to declare that the "back to the city" trend over the past few years may have passed, and that Americans are moving back to the suburbs as they did before the Great Recession.

The ten largest cities and counties in Greater Washington last year.

That's sort of the case here. The region's four biggest jurisdictions remain the three inner-ring suburban counties (Fairfax, Montgomery, and Prince George's) and the District of Columbia. But over the past six years, growth has shifted towards closer in towards DC, and farther out into the outer-ring suburbs.

Friday, February 24, 2017

route 198 could be safer, but only if the community asks for it

This is a guest post from our friend Sebastian Smoot, who's president of the Good Hope Estates Civic Association and has an awesome new blog called Growing East County about (you know) East County.

A debate over how to fix a dangerous road in Burtonsville has been going on for nearly 20 years. But the state of Maryland is ready to move a plan forward, and if residents seize the moment, they can push for sidewalks, traffic lights, turn lanes, crosswalks, bike trails, and a grid of local streets.

Image by Maryland SHA.

An unincorporated town with approximately 13,000 people, Burtonsville is the easternmost town in Montgomery County. Over the past few decades, Burtonsville has been and continues to be developed as an auto-centric town. It lacks walkability and suffers from a lack of public gathering spaces or a defined community center.

Despite these challenges, Burtonsville has an opportunity to re-define itself as a thriving village with regional appeal. Three years ago, GGWash senior editor Dan Reed suggested Burtonsville could become the "next Mosaic District".

For many locals, the key to Burtonsville's revitalization is making it's roads safer for drivers, cyclists, and pedestrians. One idea is to transform MD 198 from a dangerous, chaotic, and high-speed thoroughfare into an attractive and walkable "Main Street.”

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

"be in the right place at the right time" is not a strategy for buying a house

How can you afford to buy a house in sought-after parts of DC or other close-in areas? By moving there twenty years ago. But that's no help to people navigating the housing market today.

Fun with color and repetition: I'm really enjoying these rowhouses in Trinidad. (Another DC neighborhood I was taught to fear as a kid, now I can't afford to live there.)
Photo by the author.
One out of every ten houses currently for sale in DC is listed for over a million dollars. Curious to find out who's living in them, former GGWash contributor Rob Pitingolo at the Urban Institute found that million-dollar home owners in DC are generally not wealthy, nor do they work in high-paying fields. Many of them have just lived here for a while and bought their houses before 2000, when house prices were much lower. WAMU talked to Cleveland Park resident Robert Edmonds, who said he was simply in the right place at the right time:
“I think it would have been a lot more challenging to try to buy now,” Edmonds said. “We purchased about 15 to 18 years ago, when the market was just starting to really skyrocket. … I wanted to start a family, and we wanted to buy, get some equity, and I think we just happened to do it at the right time. If we did it 8 or 10 years later, I think we really might have regretted it for a while, at least.”

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

here are five things montgomery county says BRT would do

Better bus service could mean less traffic and fewer delays along Route 29 in Montgomery County, say transportation officials. But that may only happen if buses get their own lanes.

Potomac Yard Transitway
BRT in Alexandria opened three years ago. Photo by BeyondDC on Flickr.
For nearly a decade, the county has discussed creating a network of bus rapid transit lines. County Executive Ike Leggett wants to build the first one, along Route 29 (Colesville Road/Columbia Pike) between Silver Spring and Burtonsville, by 2020. While BRT has been successful in other cities around the country, the 11-mile line will help prove that it can work here.

The county and the Maryland Department of Transportation just finished a study looking at what a bus rapid transit line could do if it were built, and what would happen if nothing got built at all. Here's what they found.

How BRT would work

BRT offers many features you'd expect from a train: large, covered stations, fare machines where you pay before getting on, and special traffic signals to let buses pass ahead of other vehicles. The county envisions thirteen stops along Route 29, with buses running in both directions every six minutes between 5 am and midnight, seven days a week.

The most important feature of BRT are dedicated lanes for buses, which allow buses to speed past traffic, making the service fast and reliable. The county and state are looking at three alternative ways to create dedicated lanes for all buses (including existing local and commuter buses) as well as carpools. Depending on the alternative, buses would use the right-hand lane along sections of Route 29 south of New Hampshire Avenue, where it's more of a city street. North of New Hampshire Avenue, where Route 29 becomes more of a freeway, buses would either travel on the shoulder or in the median, where new lanes would be built.

Estimates say the project would cost between $79 and $136 million to build. Meanwhile, the county is planning to build a sort of "temporary" BRT line with some of those features that could cost about $67 million. It recently received a federal grant to help pay for it.

Map of the proposed Route 29 BRT line from Montgomery County.

What BRT could do

It could reduce travel times, including for drivers. Today, a bus trip from Burtonsville to Silver Spring can take nearly an hour in the morning. The study found that the same trip on BRT could take as little as 29 minutes, making it even faster than driving. In some cases, car trips would be shorter as well.

It could reduce congestion. The study found that in all three cases, the amount of driving along Route 29 would actually decrease. Today, many people may choose to drive because the current bus trip is slow and circuitous. With a new, faster option, some drivers may choose to use transit, freeing up space on the road for those who still choose to drive.

It could double transit use in East County. Route 29 is one of the region's busiest bus corridors. Today, people take 15,000 trips through the area each day on Metrobus, Ride On, or MTA commuter buses. The study estimates that another 16,000 to 18,000 would ride BRT, while existing bus service would see new riders as well.

It could increase access to jobs and economic opportunity. The study finds that BRT could "provide opportunities for low-income and minority populations to enhance their quality of life through improved transportation and employment options." Research shows that one of the biggest barriers to getting a job is the lack of safe, reliable transportation to that job. The study finds that BRT could allow East County residents to reach more jobs within 45 minutes than they can today. Transit might also draw more private investment to areas like downtown Silver Spring and White Oak, putting more jobs within close reach.

It could support Montgomery County's nighttime economy. One of the county's main priorities has been promoting nightlife in downtown areas like Silver Spring to encourage more people to live or work here, but the buses are often less frequent or don't run at all outside of rush hour. The BRT study finds that many of the proposed BRT stations, like Fenton Street, Burnt Mills, and Stewart Lane will actually be busier during evenings and weekends than during rush hour. These stations are in shopping and entertainment areas, like downtown Silver Spring and White Oak, that are both popular hangouts and have lots of late-night service and retail jobs.

This may not happen without dedicated lanes
This study looks at what would happen if Montgomery County and Maryland built bus rapid transit with dedicated lanes for buses. Creating bus lanes can be expensive depending on how you do them. And since Montgomery County first proposed BRT several years ago, there's been a lot of pushback from some neighbors who are worried about car traffic.

But all of the benefits BRT could bring East County are less likely to happen without dedicated lanes that make buses faster, more frequent, and more reliable. After all, a bus that sits in traffic is just a bus.

You've got a number of chances to offer your thoughts on this project. The county and state are taking public comments on this study through February 20. On February 7, the County Council will have a public hearing about whether to provide money to build bus rapid transit, and you can sign up to testify here. And there will be public meetings later this spring to talk even more.

(Full disclosure: I sit on the county's Route 29 South BRT Citizens Advisory Committee, but these thoughts are mine and mine alone.)